Goldman Sachs Research forecasts AI may start having a measurable impact on US GDP in about four years and begin affecting growth in other economies shortly after.
- The foundation of the forecast is the finding that AI could ultimately automate around 25% of work tasks in advanced economies and 10-20% of tasks in emerging economies, Goldman Sachs Research economists Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani write in the team’s report.
- Our economists estimate a growth boost from AI of 0.4 percentage points in the US, 0.3 percentage points on average in other developed markets, and 0.2 percentage points on average in advanced emerging markets by 2034. In other emerging markets, Goldman Sachs Research forecasts a smaller boost from AI, given adoption will probably take longer and AI exposure will likely be lower.
- “We expect this automation to drive labor cost savings and free up workers’ time, some of which will likely be allocated to new tasks,” Briggs and Kodnani write. The ultimate signifiance of these effects will depend on how capable AI actually becomes and how it’s used.